To read the complete paper should take roughly an hour. If you have 5-10 minutes read the call to action.
https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=explorer&chrome=true&srcid=0B5SK1tKTe8miMTEzOWI5ODktOWY0NS00ZWVjLTllZDctYWY4YmFjYjM1Mzdm&hl=en_US
Sunday, January 22, 2012
Friday, February 25, 2011
The civil was was about slavery
The signers of the Declaration of Independence were wrong if they meant to include Negroes among "all men," said Alexander Stephens after he had become vice president of the Confederacy. "Our new government is founded upon exactly the opposite idea; its foundations are laid, its cornerstone rests, upon the great truth that the negro is not equal to the white man; that slavery . . . is his natural and normal condition. This, our new government, is the first in the history of the world based upon this great physical, philosophical, and moral truth."
Sunday, April 25, 2010
Leadership Camden County
My wife and I participated the last nine months in Leadership Camden County (MO). Camden County became our permanent residence in March of 2009. We attended the class to get better integrated into the community. We had been week-enders for 13 years.
Camden County is 655 square miles with a population of roughly 41000 (9% urban, 91% rural). Average household income is under $30K. Cities include Climax Springs, Camdenton, Sunrise Beach, Osage Beach, Richland, and Stoutland. Camden County contains a major piece of Lake of the Ozarks. Lake of the Ozarks becomes the third or fourth largest city in the state of the Missouri during week-ends in the summer. Largest employers are local government, the school district, the hospital, and Wal-Mart. The County is heavily dependent on tourism and construction related to Lake of the Ozarks. The lake area generates approximately 1B dollars of sales each year.
Leadership Camden County involved 11 full day sessions scheduled over nine months. There was a bus tour of the county. Major topics covered were 1) history and natural resources, 2) the economy, 3) education, social & health care services, 4) law and order, 5) infrastructure, and 6) state government. Attendees included small business owners, law enforcement officers, three high school students, bank executives, county and city employees, and fire chiefs. We also attended a Camdenton City Council meeting and worked the optimists Christmas tree booth at Walmart.
This is really the first time since I was in high school that I actually now know by name many of the law enforcement personnel and fireman that support our community. It certainly personalizes every discussion on how to better support them. Not sure if it seems brave to others but its brave to me. A water patrol officer stopping a boat on a remote part of the lake after dark. Or a highway patrolman stopping a car at 2am on one of the county’s remote roads. Or a fire crew hauling its own water traveling over a windy, curvy remote count road to respond to a fire call.
There were some things that perhaps we should have known that we didn’t. For example, Camden county government is heavily dependent on sales tax revenue. Sales tax revenues have dropped year over year by roughly 8%. This has caused Camden County employee to go to 32 hours work weeks or less to save money. So now we try to spend most of our money within the county.
Building permits in Sunrise Beach remained about the same from ’08 to ’09 but revenue from those permits fell by 80%. Basically major new home construction ground to a halt.
While we can at least try and get DUI drivers off the road (or so many points against your license), there is no effective way to get DUI boaters or repeat offenders off the lake. No comparable laws exist for the lake. For example, a couple of years ago the water patrol stopped a boat at night that had its running lights off. The driver had his wife and kids on board. The driver also had two pistols, cocaine, and 10K in cash. This driver is still on the lake. (By the way the deputy county prosecutor said we really can’t keep repeat offender drunk drivers off the Camden county roads). My second example is the person that piloted the helicopter where a child was killed in ’08. In Sept of ’09 this same person beached a 52 foot sea ray causing 640K of damage to a 750K boat. This person is still on the lake.
During our law enforcement session, police coverage at the high schools was a discussion point. When did that happen: Police coverage required at the high schools in this rural community?
One of the things we had followed closely was the Camden County planning and zoning commission. The key message was how short of resource the commission is. Virtually all of P&Z’s time is spent dealing with developer issues. This leaves little time for enforcing P&Z rules when residential complaints surface. We have had personal experience with a very bad mobile home park owner. Resources are need for P&Z to address out of compliance land and home owners.
It was clear after our visit to Jefferson City, that we didn’t understand the MO budget process. The key to MO’s revenue is payroll taxes and the current MO unemployment rate is above 9%. Payroll tax revenue is down 13% year over year in MO. The only flexibility the state had left to balance the budget was to cut education. We heard an interesting debate on the MO senate floor on whether summer school should continue. Missouri’s unemployment rate needs to get to 5% or below before payroll tax revenues return to normal.
For a small community there were some impressive local groups supporting the county. I will mention three. 1) The Ambulance/EMT group can get to your emergency in under 15 minutes anywhere in this vast rural county. Its really pretty unbelievable. And we know how good they are. We used them when one of our god children had an allergic reaction three years ago.
2) One of our class participants was part of the original group that developed the toll bridge connecting the Porto Cima and Villages area to Lake Ozark. I was really impressed with the vision and persistence shown.
3) One of the world’s largest tropical fisheries exists in Stoutland, MO. During our Camden County tour we visited it. Blew me away. Main competition is China.
So what do we believe are the key go forward issues/questions for the county. This is a bit wordy so bear with us.
First, the LOZ water quality issue raised repeated times by the Kansas City Star (and in a consistently negative way). Perception is reality on this one. Although water quality samples taken at the lake are generally OK it only takes a couple of bad samples that go unreported by the DNR to create a lake wide perception. (and this became a major embarrassment for the Gov of MO in 2009). The lake community needs to address this perception in a systematic and sustainable way. The Lake of the Ozarks Watershed Alliance introduced a 150M watershed management plan for the lake at its April meeting. The 187 page document is a planning start. Continued water sampling with timely published results need to continue. Funding for the LOWA plan will be key with the first suggestion being a 1 cent addition to the sales tax. And movement forward on this will be a jobs boost for Camden County. http://www.camdenmo.org/EcoliHandout.pdf
Second, Camden County needs to expand the number of good paying and sustainable jobs. Is the lake area doing enough to promote LOZ as a year round destination? Are there lessons to be learned from Minnesota’s resort areas? We discovered a call center in Sunrise Beach that supports over 80 employees. Should we promote the call center business in the lake area? (had a director from the State of MO that bad mouthed the call center business during one of our sessions) And what about IT? The lake area is an attractive area to live. Should we develop a near shoring IT strategy for the county (and rural MO in general) that takes jobs away from the Indian firms? Should this IT strategy be supported by the local school districts? Construction needs to recover at the lake. How will second home financing work with the new financial credit restrictions? How can Camden County planning and zoning contribute to construction recovery? Has enough been done to promote the lake area as a retirement destination? Are there specific actions that should be taken around retiree social activities? Can the lake area learn from Tucson?
Third, social agencies in the county need to continue to be funded. It was disheartening to hear every county law enforcement officer and prosecutor discuss child and sexual abuse as a significant problem. We know from our experience with Bridge Home for Children in Kansas City that children are permanently damaged if allowed to stay in an abusive environment. And the lake area continues to have a significant drug problem. These issues cannot be addressed by law enforcement alone.
Fourth, highway infrastructure is still a major impediment in parts of Camden County. The 6 miles of MO 7 between Greenview and J Road where accidents occur so frequently is very dangerous. MO 5 north of the Niangua bridge needs to be improved all the way to Gravois Mills. TT which supports the lake toll bridge is a safety hazard and should be immediately improved. You can generally find a mostly 4 lane route to St Louis and Springfield (after MO-5 is improved to Lebanon). This is not true of Kansas City where at least 50-70 miles of two lane road need to be driven. A super 2 from Camdenton to Gravois Mills and a super 2 from Greenview to US 65 would improve this situation and lead to more economic development in those parts of the county. Remember, when competing for week-enders business, cutting 15 to 20 minutes of one way drive time is very significant. Many in KC will pick a second home at LOZ versus Table Rock for that kind of time reduction.
Fifth, we need to be concerned about the merger of the highway patrol and the water patrol. The water patrol officers are so important to everyone’s safety on the lake. We have sent a note to our state rep and state sen on this topic. We have suggested three things: That the LOZ combined forces commander be a water patrol officer, that financial incentives for WP officers who make the transition to HP officers be put in place (because HP is short of head count), and that a measurement metric be put in place to make sure WP coverage of the lake isn’t short changed.
Sixth, as noted above, Camden County needs sufficient resources to address P&Z complaints for out of compliance land and home owners.
Finally, we are very happy we participated
Camden County is 655 square miles with a population of roughly 41000 (9% urban, 91% rural). Average household income is under $30K. Cities include Climax Springs, Camdenton, Sunrise Beach, Osage Beach, Richland, and Stoutland. Camden County contains a major piece of Lake of the Ozarks. Lake of the Ozarks becomes the third or fourth largest city in the state of the Missouri during week-ends in the summer. Largest employers are local government, the school district, the hospital, and Wal-Mart. The County is heavily dependent on tourism and construction related to Lake of the Ozarks. The lake area generates approximately 1B dollars of sales each year.
Leadership Camden County involved 11 full day sessions scheduled over nine months. There was a bus tour of the county. Major topics covered were 1) history and natural resources, 2) the economy, 3) education, social & health care services, 4) law and order, 5) infrastructure, and 6) state government. Attendees included small business owners, law enforcement officers, three high school students, bank executives, county and city employees, and fire chiefs. We also attended a Camdenton City Council meeting and worked the optimists Christmas tree booth at Walmart.
This is really the first time since I was in high school that I actually now know by name many of the law enforcement personnel and fireman that support our community. It certainly personalizes every discussion on how to better support them. Not sure if it seems brave to others but its brave to me. A water patrol officer stopping a boat on a remote part of the lake after dark. Or a highway patrolman stopping a car at 2am on one of the county’s remote roads. Or a fire crew hauling its own water traveling over a windy, curvy remote count road to respond to a fire call.
There were some things that perhaps we should have known that we didn’t. For example, Camden county government is heavily dependent on sales tax revenue. Sales tax revenues have dropped year over year by roughly 8%. This has caused Camden County employee to go to 32 hours work weeks or less to save money. So now we try to spend most of our money within the county.
Building permits in Sunrise Beach remained about the same from ’08 to ’09 but revenue from those permits fell by 80%. Basically major new home construction ground to a halt.
While we can at least try and get DUI drivers off the road (or so many points against your license), there is no effective way to get DUI boaters or repeat offenders off the lake. No comparable laws exist for the lake. For example, a couple of years ago the water patrol stopped a boat at night that had its running lights off. The driver had his wife and kids on board. The driver also had two pistols, cocaine, and 10K in cash. This driver is still on the lake. (By the way the deputy county prosecutor said we really can’t keep repeat offender drunk drivers off the Camden county roads). My second example is the person that piloted the helicopter where a child was killed in ’08. In Sept of ’09 this same person beached a 52 foot sea ray causing 640K of damage to a 750K boat. This person is still on the lake.
During our law enforcement session, police coverage at the high schools was a discussion point. When did that happen: Police coverage required at the high schools in this rural community?
One of the things we had followed closely was the Camden County planning and zoning commission. The key message was how short of resource the commission is. Virtually all of P&Z’s time is spent dealing with developer issues. This leaves little time for enforcing P&Z rules when residential complaints surface. We have had personal experience with a very bad mobile home park owner. Resources are need for P&Z to address out of compliance land and home owners.
It was clear after our visit to Jefferson City, that we didn’t understand the MO budget process. The key to MO’s revenue is payroll taxes and the current MO unemployment rate is above 9%. Payroll tax revenue is down 13% year over year in MO. The only flexibility the state had left to balance the budget was to cut education. We heard an interesting debate on the MO senate floor on whether summer school should continue. Missouri’s unemployment rate needs to get to 5% or below before payroll tax revenues return to normal.
For a small community there were some impressive local groups supporting the county. I will mention three. 1) The Ambulance/EMT group can get to your emergency in under 15 minutes anywhere in this vast rural county. Its really pretty unbelievable. And we know how good they are. We used them when one of our god children had an allergic reaction three years ago.
2) One of our class participants was part of the original group that developed the toll bridge connecting the Porto Cima and Villages area to Lake Ozark. I was really impressed with the vision and persistence shown.
3) One of the world’s largest tropical fisheries exists in Stoutland, MO. During our Camden County tour we visited it. Blew me away. Main competition is China.
So what do we believe are the key go forward issues/questions for the county. This is a bit wordy so bear with us.
First, the LOZ water quality issue raised repeated times by the Kansas City Star (and in a consistently negative way). Perception is reality on this one. Although water quality samples taken at the lake are generally OK it only takes a couple of bad samples that go unreported by the DNR to create a lake wide perception. (and this became a major embarrassment for the Gov of MO in 2009). The lake community needs to address this perception in a systematic and sustainable way. The Lake of the Ozarks Watershed Alliance introduced a 150M watershed management plan for the lake at its April meeting. The 187 page document is a planning start. Continued water sampling with timely published results need to continue. Funding for the LOWA plan will be key with the first suggestion being a 1 cent addition to the sales tax. And movement forward on this will be a jobs boost for Camden County. http://www.camdenmo.org/EcoliHandout.pdf
Second, Camden County needs to expand the number of good paying and sustainable jobs. Is the lake area doing enough to promote LOZ as a year round destination? Are there lessons to be learned from Minnesota’s resort areas? We discovered a call center in Sunrise Beach that supports over 80 employees. Should we promote the call center business in the lake area? (had a director from the State of MO that bad mouthed the call center business during one of our sessions) And what about IT? The lake area is an attractive area to live. Should we develop a near shoring IT strategy for the county (and rural MO in general) that takes jobs away from the Indian firms? Should this IT strategy be supported by the local school districts? Construction needs to recover at the lake. How will second home financing work with the new financial credit restrictions? How can Camden County planning and zoning contribute to construction recovery? Has enough been done to promote the lake area as a retirement destination? Are there specific actions that should be taken around retiree social activities? Can the lake area learn from Tucson?
Third, social agencies in the county need to continue to be funded. It was disheartening to hear every county law enforcement officer and prosecutor discuss child and sexual abuse as a significant problem. We know from our experience with Bridge Home for Children in Kansas City that children are permanently damaged if allowed to stay in an abusive environment. And the lake area continues to have a significant drug problem. These issues cannot be addressed by law enforcement alone.
Fourth, highway infrastructure is still a major impediment in parts of Camden County. The 6 miles of MO 7 between Greenview and J Road where accidents occur so frequently is very dangerous. MO 5 north of the Niangua bridge needs to be improved all the way to Gravois Mills. TT which supports the lake toll bridge is a safety hazard and should be immediately improved. You can generally find a mostly 4 lane route to St Louis and Springfield (after MO-5 is improved to Lebanon). This is not true of Kansas City where at least 50-70 miles of two lane road need to be driven. A super 2 from Camdenton to Gravois Mills and a super 2 from Greenview to US 65 would improve this situation and lead to more economic development in those parts of the county. Remember, when competing for week-enders business, cutting 15 to 20 minutes of one way drive time is very significant. Many in KC will pick a second home at LOZ versus Table Rock for that kind of time reduction.
Fifth, we need to be concerned about the merger of the highway patrol and the water patrol. The water patrol officers are so important to everyone’s safety on the lake. We have sent a note to our state rep and state sen on this topic. We have suggested three things: That the LOZ combined forces commander be a water patrol officer, that financial incentives for WP officers who make the transition to HP officers be put in place (because HP is short of head count), and that a measurement metric be put in place to make sure WP coverage of the lake isn’t short changed.
Sixth, as noted above, Camden County needs sufficient resources to address P&Z complaints for out of compliance land and home owners.
Finally, we are very happy we participated
Thursday, April 8, 2010
Chris Curry - How the republican party purge me
Decided in the end that this wasnt worth a read. I intend to extend this post with a series of issues of substance but actually want to call Chris out first.
“Now, we have became the party of the Old Straight White Folks. We should rename the Republican Party the OSWF rather than the GOP.” – Chris Currey
It’s interesting to be mocked. Since I am retired, white, and straight he must mean me. He feels free to paint me as racist and intolerant. And by the way the reference to Bedford Forest suggests I also belong to the Klan. And the implication on the Beck reference (who I never watch) is that I cant think for myself.
Well, Chris, let me tell you who we really are. We OSWF’s have been paying all the bills. As individuals we pay more federal income tax in a year, than most families do in a lifetime, and we do so year after year. We have been high achievers our whole life. We have been intensely competitive (and have been so on a global basis) and worked in industries where what made you good last year didn’t necessarily make you good this year. Many of us have run large organizations of people who are the very best at what they do in the world. Running these large organizations we have achieved very difficult and complex global organizational objectives on an annual basis. We have an incredible amount of “show me” experience learned through the school of hard knocks. Many of us have delivered first of a kind solutions to the world. Many of us led the efforts on affirmative action at our work place and attained corporate diversity objectives. Many of us are leaders in the local community directly addressing our localities most pressing social issues and financially supporting multiple local charities. We have a wealth of experience on what motivates people, how to manage people, and how to retain the best and the brightest. We have made the hiring, firing, promotion, and promotion decisions . Many of us have had to deal with a complex bureaucracy our whole careers and understand what it means when a new one is introduced. We OSWF’s have been winners our whole life. And we understand how to win. And the only thing we know how to do is think for ourselves. Mock us at your peril. The last 3 state wide elections – VA, NJ, and Mass have gone to OSWF’s. Finally, the other sexist, racist, and intolerant aspect of your characterization is that high achievers are only white males. I suggest you rename us the osf’s – old successful people which covers all races, sexes, and sexual orientation. And remember Chris the difference between champ and chump is U. CHUMP. See you in November.
“Now, we have became the party of the Old Straight White Folks. We should rename the Republican Party the OSWF rather than the GOP.” – Chris Currey
It’s interesting to be mocked. Since I am retired, white, and straight he must mean me. He feels free to paint me as racist and intolerant. And by the way the reference to Bedford Forest suggests I also belong to the Klan. And the implication on the Beck reference (who I never watch) is that I cant think for myself.
Well, Chris, let me tell you who we really are. We OSWF’s have been paying all the bills. As individuals we pay more federal income tax in a year, than most families do in a lifetime, and we do so year after year. We have been high achievers our whole life. We have been intensely competitive (and have been so on a global basis) and worked in industries where what made you good last year didn’t necessarily make you good this year. Many of us have run large organizations of people who are the very best at what they do in the world. Running these large organizations we have achieved very difficult and complex global organizational objectives on an annual basis. We have an incredible amount of “show me” experience learned through the school of hard knocks. Many of us have delivered first of a kind solutions to the world. Many of us led the efforts on affirmative action at our work place and attained corporate diversity objectives. Many of us are leaders in the local community directly addressing our localities most pressing social issues and financially supporting multiple local charities. We have a wealth of experience on what motivates people, how to manage people, and how to retain the best and the brightest. We have made the hiring, firing, promotion, and promotion decisions . Many of us have had to deal with a complex bureaucracy our whole careers and understand what it means when a new one is introduced. We OSWF’s have been winners our whole life. And we understand how to win. And the only thing we know how to do is think for ourselves. Mock us at your peril. The last 3 state wide elections – VA, NJ, and Mass have gone to OSWF’s. Finally, the other sexist, racist, and intolerant aspect of your characterization is that high achievers are only white males. I suggest you rename us the osf’s – old successful people which covers all races, sexes, and sexual orientation. And remember Chris the difference between champ and chump is U. CHUMP. See you in November.
Monday, March 29, 2010
My healthcare response to my liberal friend as we debate the legislation
Am going to focus my response just on the health care bill. Its not a bill anymore it’s the law. I believe the Obama administrations priority on healthcare has been completely misplaced. The focus for the past year should have been on jobs. Bob Herbert, columnist for the NY times and certainly no conservative, wrote an excellent column about this March 9th. “The Obama administration and Democrats in general are in trouble because they are not urgently and effectively addressing the issue (unemployment) that most Americans want them to: the frightening economic insecurity that has put a chokehold on millions of American families. “ (and not wanting to repeat the entire article here would urge all to read) The effective unemployment rate still hovers around 17%. Caterpillar and AT&T have both done an analysis of the cost of HC to their companies. 150M after tax for Caterpillar, 1B in charges for AT&T. For these two companies it means that additional Cat and AT&T employees will either lose their jobs or have their jobs sent overseas. And what about the rest of the fortune 500 much less small business. Pelosi said the HC bill would almost immediately create (hope she meant private sector) 400K jobs. I have seen other projections that say the HC bill will not create US jobs but will cost 700,000 US jobs. For the sake of the US, on this one, I hope Pelosi is right. I do not feel this administration has effectively recognized and understood the significance of the unemployment problem. In fact I don’t think there is anyone at the top of the administration that understands creating private sector jobs in a global economy. If the dems get an election pounding this fall it will be because of jobs and the state of the economy not healthcare and the swing groups will be independents and seniors.
Lets move on to the healthcare financial model that I called the big lie. Your first sign is that the model is based on 10 years of collecting taxes for effectively 6 years of benefits. The second sign is the medicare mandates for the states. Again the NYT on Sat March 27th had a good article on the dilemma this creates for the states. In particular, California which is already close to bankruptcy will over the years be hit with massive new Medicaid outlays which are unaccounted for in the CBO model. Your third sign is this legislation creates 159 new agencies, commissions and bureaus. (plus 16K new IRS agents) Even if you somehow believe these will be value adds to health care delivery the complexity of putting these in place on time and on budget with quality is mind boggling. The fourth sign is the administrative compliance costs (and it will be billions) that will be absorbed by the private sector and individuals. These are never accounted for in a govt financial model. For example the Caterpillar and AT&T numbers will include this burden. The fifth sign is experiential. Name one government entitlement program that has ever reduced cost over its life. Basically, it is counter intuitive to believe this new HC law is revenue neutral or will reduce costs. And since you quoted Biden so will I, the 159 new government entities will create one gigantic fXXKing mess. ("If you have ten thousand regulations you destroy all respect for the law." Winston Churchill).
One last point on the financials. The California delegation (Pelosi, Harman, Feinstein, Boxer, Waxman, et al) are the leaders of the dem party in California and leaders in the HC push. Dem party in California has been in charge of the legislature for 30 or 40 years. And California is close to bankruptcy. How does one kill the goose that laid the golden egg?? Traditionally one sixth of the US economy. (Actual13.2% unemployment rate in CA in Jan, effective was higher) Ask them because they did it. Then move onto the City of Detroit. Now there is recognition of the ability of democrats to govern.
Moving back to the 159 new government entities and the number new federal agencies to be created. You are right we do not have a public option. What we do have is the creation of a massive new bureaucracy to directly control the insurance companies and health care delivery. I wonder what if any analysis has been done to determine the value add of each new federal job to health care delivery. I wonder if it will ever be done. What we do know for certain is that if a bureaucracy is ever put in place it will always spend vast amounts of energy justifying itself and attempting to expand its reach. And I consider the 16K new IRS agents to be reflective of the intimidation factor in this law. Exactly why do we need these when this country has a high degree of voluntary tax compliance. Its interesting that Waxman is already demanding hearings and requesting internal documents from Cat and AT&T on their cost projections. Intimidation, you bet. Do I think Waxman is clueless about the details of this legislation? Yes. You and I both know that major corporations have been all over this legislation. They wouldn’t have gone public without doing extensive homework. But Congress passed a law that many members didn’t read with a financial model that many members didn’t understand.
This bill is now law in a time when this country is running massive deficits. For the first time this year social security will take in less money than it pays out. Virtually every state has revenue shortfalls and budget problems. I believe Missouri’s revenue projection is 1B short of the money required for the budget. Last Friday, CNBC said the most recent deficit projection for the decade is now 8 trillion dollars worse than in 2008. Much like the unemployment rate, this is a catastrophe for every American. The best thing we can do for each other is improve the economy. Yet Healthcare mandated 14 new taxes (one article I read said the largest tax increase in US history) including payroll taxes on a barely recovering economy. And the legislation itself didn’t do the simplest of things to save hundreds of thousands of Americans money. Dorgan of North Dakota introduced an amendment to allow for the importation of drugs and it was voted down. And the stench of the special deals gives new meaning to slopping the hogs. In the end what can make this bill work is heavy focus on improving the economy, no special deals, everybody in, reasonable regulation, and a relentless focus on cost take out and process improvement in the entire healthcare landscape.
But then I am attempting to argue like this law is actually about healthcare versus income redistribution, government control, taking care of dem special interests (ie government employee unions, lawyers), a government power grab, and the first step to getting a public option. (and the dems make laws for the masses and want out clauses for themselves) NYT had a good recent article on this (wealth inequality). Income redistribution is one of the driving forces behind any Obama administration legislation. In any case, we now have to live with this healthcare bill. The near term chances of repeal are slim and none. The real question is will anyone really attempt to make improvements to this legislation that should be made.
I predict the American public will react negatively as the details of the bill become known. The devil is in the details and the American public will recognize the devil. This will be particularly true of seniors. We will have to see what this means in November. If the economy and unemployment rates haven’t improved dems are toast regardless of HC.
Finally, combining the HC bill spending with the current and projected federal deficits can mean only one thing with the dems in power: new taxes. Besides letting the Bush tax cuts expire I believe you will hear the dems call for something like a VAT tax. When you want European style safety nets you will get European style taxation.
Lets move on to the healthcare financial model that I called the big lie. Your first sign is that the model is based on 10 years of collecting taxes for effectively 6 years of benefits. The second sign is the medicare mandates for the states. Again the NYT on Sat March 27th had a good article on the dilemma this creates for the states. In particular, California which is already close to bankruptcy will over the years be hit with massive new Medicaid outlays which are unaccounted for in the CBO model. Your third sign is this legislation creates 159 new agencies, commissions and bureaus. (plus 16K new IRS agents) Even if you somehow believe these will be value adds to health care delivery the complexity of putting these in place on time and on budget with quality is mind boggling. The fourth sign is the administrative compliance costs (and it will be billions) that will be absorbed by the private sector and individuals. These are never accounted for in a govt financial model. For example the Caterpillar and AT&T numbers will include this burden. The fifth sign is experiential. Name one government entitlement program that has ever reduced cost over its life. Basically, it is counter intuitive to believe this new HC law is revenue neutral or will reduce costs. And since you quoted Biden so will I, the 159 new government entities will create one gigantic fXXKing mess. ("If you have ten thousand regulations you destroy all respect for the law." Winston Churchill).
One last point on the financials. The California delegation (Pelosi, Harman, Feinstein, Boxer, Waxman, et al) are the leaders of the dem party in California and leaders in the HC push. Dem party in California has been in charge of the legislature for 30 or 40 years. And California is close to bankruptcy. How does one kill the goose that laid the golden egg?? Traditionally one sixth of the US economy. (Actual13.2% unemployment rate in CA in Jan, effective was higher) Ask them because they did it. Then move onto the City of Detroit. Now there is recognition of the ability of democrats to govern.
Moving back to the 159 new government entities and the number new federal agencies to be created. You are right we do not have a public option. What we do have is the creation of a massive new bureaucracy to directly control the insurance companies and health care delivery. I wonder what if any analysis has been done to determine the value add of each new federal job to health care delivery. I wonder if it will ever be done. What we do know for certain is that if a bureaucracy is ever put in place it will always spend vast amounts of energy justifying itself and attempting to expand its reach. And I consider the 16K new IRS agents to be reflective of the intimidation factor in this law. Exactly why do we need these when this country has a high degree of voluntary tax compliance. Its interesting that Waxman is already demanding hearings and requesting internal documents from Cat and AT&T on their cost projections. Intimidation, you bet. Do I think Waxman is clueless about the details of this legislation? Yes. You and I both know that major corporations have been all over this legislation. They wouldn’t have gone public without doing extensive homework. But Congress passed a law that many members didn’t read with a financial model that many members didn’t understand.
This bill is now law in a time when this country is running massive deficits. For the first time this year social security will take in less money than it pays out. Virtually every state has revenue shortfalls and budget problems. I believe Missouri’s revenue projection is 1B short of the money required for the budget. Last Friday, CNBC said the most recent deficit projection for the decade is now 8 trillion dollars worse than in 2008. Much like the unemployment rate, this is a catastrophe for every American. The best thing we can do for each other is improve the economy. Yet Healthcare mandated 14 new taxes (one article I read said the largest tax increase in US history) including payroll taxes on a barely recovering economy. And the legislation itself didn’t do the simplest of things to save hundreds of thousands of Americans money. Dorgan of North Dakota introduced an amendment to allow for the importation of drugs and it was voted down. And the stench of the special deals gives new meaning to slopping the hogs. In the end what can make this bill work is heavy focus on improving the economy, no special deals, everybody in, reasonable regulation, and a relentless focus on cost take out and process improvement in the entire healthcare landscape.
But then I am attempting to argue like this law is actually about healthcare versus income redistribution, government control, taking care of dem special interests (ie government employee unions, lawyers), a government power grab, and the first step to getting a public option. (and the dems make laws for the masses and want out clauses for themselves) NYT had a good recent article on this (wealth inequality). Income redistribution is one of the driving forces behind any Obama administration legislation. In any case, we now have to live with this healthcare bill. The near term chances of repeal are slim and none. The real question is will anyone really attempt to make improvements to this legislation that should be made.
I predict the American public will react negatively as the details of the bill become known. The devil is in the details and the American public will recognize the devil. This will be particularly true of seniors. We will have to see what this means in November. If the economy and unemployment rates haven’t improved dems are toast regardless of HC.
Finally, combining the HC bill spending with the current and projected federal deficits can mean only one thing with the dems in power: new taxes. Besides letting the Bush tax cuts expire I believe you will hear the dems call for something like a VAT tax. When you want European style safety nets you will get European style taxation.
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